Horserace: Debate night

At this moment Silver-538 sees it electorally as 272 / 265 > Clinton. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

That’s tight. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/09/should-you-panic-over-the-polls-yes-you-should.html

It’s not obvious to me what ostensibly blue state Trump picks off to get over the top…. http://www.vox.com/2016/9/26/13057850/donald-trump-polls-winning But it appears he’s going to win Ohio. A Republican president hasn’t won without Ohio since yada yada…. Bodes well for Trump, is the thing.

In our exercises here I have tried to embrace methodology and evidence, etc rather than gut… the evidentiary guess is that Clinton squeaks this out. The ambient vibe though, is she’s going to lose and Trump is going to win.

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