Daily election outlook: DNC wikileaks edition

This shouldn’t be a problem, right.  Politically informed adults understand that yes, the D primary was rigged in favor of Hillary, and the party apparatus was at her disposal for any function necessary to her efforts.  And ya know, despite that Hillary and the Democrats felt a need to douche talk around that fact, it wasn’t totally unreasonable such that Bernie is not a member of the party.  The party is there to support the party member duh.

So it’s understandable.  But it’s also damaging.  It reinforces the basic ‘rigged’ness about Hillary that people perceive in pejorative terms.  I expect it makes the BernieBros more recalcitrant, and this schism is probably the equivalent of the Trump/NeverTrump divide.  I think it exceeds it actually.  Ya know, Bernie had about 35% of the party’s ear.  That’s a lot.  The NeverTrump-ers have some feel now of being less than 10% of likely R voters.

Something I’ve been seeing these polls…Trump has nosed ahead right (for now, and it might not mean much, and I am not voting for him…).  In this whisker lead the polls show where Trump is ahead by say 43-40, these polls also show Gary Johnson getting like 7% of the vote.

That’s.  Not. Going. To. Happen.

Gary Johnson is going to get 1% alright.  Trump may win, Trump may lose, but Gary Johnson will get 1% of the vote and the people saying they’ll vote for him now will be voting for Trump.  Which is good for Trump, such that it’s making his likely support look less than it is. Big thing is, I’d bet the proper assumption is the Libertarian Party doesn’t do any better than it ever does.  Which is to say, 1%.

In the last day I’ve been going, wow… this Trump thing is really going to happen.  Well I’m mindful right now to not forget, women and minorities won’t be voting for him.  That’s a high bar.

Last thing:  In the DNC emails, I’m pretty amused at what must be a staff of cosmopolitan atheists themselves speculating how they can damage Bernie’s standing among flyover country Democrats by revealing his atheism.

7/26/16 Zingy 2016 General Election Win Chance %:

Trump – 50.1%

Clinton – 49.9%

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2 thoughts on “Daily election outlook: DNC wikileaks edition

  1. pm1956

    Yeah, not only was Bernie not a Democrat, he is universally considered to be an ass.

    But there was nothing rigged about it. The DNC (like the RNC) is basically powerless. If they had the ability to actually rig the thing, Bernie would never have gotten as far as he did.

    It does, however, reinforce the feeling among the Bernie Bros that the system is rigged. People on the left as well as on the right are susceptible to conspiracy thinking, and this is proof of that. Of course, the difference is in the candidates, one of which is a conspiracy kook, and the other is pretty level headed (or at least not prone to magical thinking).

    I also do not think that the party divisions are similar. Consider this–the leader of the never Trumpers refused to endorse, and many never trumpers failed to even attend, including former Presidents. The leaders of the Nerver hillary crowd were there endorsing Hillary enthusiastically, and saying that they would be working for her in the fall. That is a huge difference. Don’t forget that immediately after the RNC convention, Trump was still spending time attacking Cruz, and not Hillary!

    Reply
    1. W.E. Peterson Post author

      The voting wasn’t systemically rigged, certainly. The party apparatus was biased to Hillary and leveraged on her behalf in some wasy, and this probably had little effect on the outcome.

      Reply

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