Daily election outlook: 538 has Trump very far ahead

The usual dynamic link.  Today Nate’s model has Trump with a 57% probability of winning

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Holy fing old white people preference cascade man.

Ya know, I don’t know….  As a matter of analysis I think all the reasons I thought Trump couldn’t win are still true.

But Hillary is still very unlikable. And given an opportunity to vote against her, a lot of people will, instinctually. And the ‘give the system the middle finger’ vote is Trumps.  And it’s a very big vote.

Takeaway:  Trump defeat is a ‘landslide that destroys the GOP’ is actually a remote scenario.

Zingy 2016 General Election Win Chance %:

Trump – 51%

Clinton – 49%

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s