Daily election outlook: 538 has Trump very far ahead

The usual dynamic link.  Today Nate’s model has Trump with a 57% probability of winning


Holy fing old white people preference cascade man.

Ya know, I don’t know….  As a matter of analysis I think all the reasons I thought Trump couldn’t win are still true.

But Hillary is still very unlikable. And given an opportunity to vote against her, a lot of people will, instinctually. And the ‘give the system the middle finger’ vote is Trumps.  And it’s a very big vote.

Takeaway:  Trump defeat is a ‘landslide that destroys the GOP’ is actually a remote scenario.

Zingy 2016 General Election Win Chance %:

Trump – 51%

Clinton – 49%


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