The usual dynamic link. Today Nate’s model has Trump with a 57% probability of winning
Holy fing old white people preference cascade man.
Ya know, I don’t know…. As a matter of analysis I think all the reasons I thought Trump couldn’t win are still true.
But Hillary is still very unlikable. And given an opportunity to vote against her, a lot of people will, instinctually. And the ‘give the system the middle finger’ vote is Trumps. And it’s a very big vote.
Takeaway: Trump defeat is a ‘landslide that destroys the GOP’ is actually a remote scenario.
Zingy 2016 General Election Win Chance %:
Trump – 51%
Clinton – 49%