My certitude that Trump will lose comes from a proper but fairly conventional understanding of American politics past and present but fact is, predicting is hard, especially about the future, and things change. So Trump could win. And ya know, he’s in the game, and he’s not down that far. Maybe he’s not down at all.
He could win. He can win with that speech and that message (I’m not voting for him). That’s the reality, there is an electorate that will be successfully appealed to there.
This map is not static, it apparently updates by day, so what you want to note about today’s outlook is 538 regards it currently as a merely 292/244 EC race in favor of Clinton.
Boy, that’s precarious for the presumed victor. If Trump gets FL and another state like OH, PA, CO…. he wins. That’s all yer mythical cascade preference needs to accomplish. And it has a feeling of being more likely than unlikely.
7/22/2016 – Zingy 2016 General Election Win Chance %:
Trump – 51%
Clinton – 49%