Daily election outlook: “vote your conscience”

What I do here at Zingy is significantly an earnest exercise in reality discernment, right….  Cut through the bullshit and mass psychosis to discern reality… not let your partisan rooting interests and emotions get in the way of discerning reality….. Choose the best, most accurate words to describe reality….

To that end you use context and history and wisdom.   If you’re predicting you use all that and Occam’s razor too.

I thought there was no way Trump would be nominee.  It wasn’t an ignorant guess.

He is R nominee though, and in a binary system in a split country with big superficial momentum swings, the CW is Trump has a meaningful chance of winning the general election despite some structural boundaries.  The CW right now is that pct chance is about 35% (say, Nate Silver).  Here’s my guess at a probability percentage (I’ll try and make this a recurring feature every few days):

2016 General Election Win Chance %:

Clinton – 100%

Trump – 0%

Last night there, in my mind Cruz probably moved the realistic probability of Trump actually winning from something meaninglessly non-zero to zero.  So it’s not to say Cruz made a Trump victory impossible…. Trump and his intersection with existing political demographics makes a Trump victory almost impossible.  But Cruz did remove some doubt when he suggested to “lesser of two evils” weighing Republicans that it was a virtue to not vote for Trump.  A lot of them now will go ahead and not.  It’s enough, not like magic thinking of a Trump general election preference cascade was going to be sufficient anyway.

So what comes of last night’s non-endorsement is not the election result.  It’s that as an articulator of reality Cruz gains stature, has the most credibility to be the head of Republican leadership in exile.  And we don’t actually wait until 2020 for Republican leadership in exile to grab the reins of the party.  Rein grabbing happens on Wed, Nov 9, 2016.

Chait gives Cruz a big smooch:  http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/gop-in-chaos-must-decide-whether-to-elect-madman.html

Yeah, Cruz is understood to be a calculating, self-serving SOB.  But his self-interest is in the Venn overlap there with the party’s smart, responsible future such that there is going to be a smart responsible future.  No one else is doing it, Cruz is earning his place.

Added:  http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/438159/i-choose-ted

 

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One thought on “Daily election outlook: “vote your conscience”

  1. pm1956

    Yeah, there are several ways to look at all of this. Trump does have a chance, and lightning could strike twice.

    No matter what, Trump is going to get somewhere in the low to mid 40% of the national vote. Between now and November, he will probably hit the upper 40’s at some time, and there is a strong chance that in the period between the GOP convention and the Democratic Convention, he will be ahead in the polls (and probably still in the mid to lower 40% range).

    But remember the Bush/Gore election. Winning the popular vote (or leading in the national polls) does not win Presidential elections. You need 270 electoral votes. And the electoral map sucks for any Republican, and sucks even worse for Trump. And then you take a look at the fact that Trump has virtually no state level organizations in place, no get out the vote strategy, and little to no fundraising efforts in place, and it seems like this whole effort on his part is nothing more than a vanity exercise to massage a massive ego.

    but it could still happen.

    Despite the general incoherence of Trump (did you see what he said about foreign affairs?), he is still going to get more than 40% of the vote. Trump is making me like Ted Cruz (and even Bill Kristol) more and more.

    BTW, this is a good piece, and a good reminder that Trump’s victory in the GOP primaries was not a sure thing at all: http://www.vox.com/2016/7/18/12184728/how-donald-trump-won

    Reply

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