Monthly Archives: July 2016

On Kaine

I am in some superficial approval of this man.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Kaine

He strikes me as somehow Denis McDonough-ish in temperament, say if McDonough was a guy who ran for offices (I bet he will someday).  They are both high achieving Spanish speakers who did missions.  The big common thread…. a St. Paul kind of Irish Catholicism.  Kaine was born in St. Paul (not raised there).

Kaine was born at the old St. Joseph’s Hospital…  I see an origin story that is so, so distinctly mid-century St. Paul, German / Irish Catholic.  My families come from that.  This St. Paul G/I thing is not as well a known thing as Minnesota’s Swedish Lutheranism.  It’s perhaps not known at all really, not known to many.  But it is a thing, and…

I dunno, I just approve.  I don’t see a bad apple coming from the St. Paul G/I thing.

Advertisements

Daily election outlook: DNC wikileaks edition

This shouldn’t be a problem, right.  Politically informed adults understand that yes, the D primary was rigged in favor of Hillary, and the party apparatus was at her disposal for any function necessary to her efforts.  And ya know, despite that Hillary and the Democrats felt a need to douche talk around that fact, it wasn’t totally unreasonable such that Bernie is not a member of the party.  The party is there to support the party member duh.

So it’s understandable.  But it’s also damaging.  It reinforces the basic ‘rigged’ness about Hillary that people perceive in pejorative terms.  I expect it makes the BernieBros more recalcitrant, and this schism is probably the equivalent of the Trump/NeverTrump divide.  I think it exceeds it actually.  Ya know, Bernie had about 35% of the party’s ear.  That’s a lot.  The NeverTrump-ers have some feel now of being less than 10% of likely R voters.

Something I’ve been seeing these polls…Trump has nosed ahead right (for now, and it might not mean much, and I am not voting for him…).  In this whisker lead the polls show where Trump is ahead by say 43-40, these polls also show Gary Johnson getting like 7% of the vote.

That’s.  Not. Going. To. Happen.

Gary Johnson is going to get 1% alright.  Trump may win, Trump may lose, but Gary Johnson will get 1% of the vote and the people saying they’ll vote for him now will be voting for Trump.  Which is good for Trump, such that it’s making his likely support look less than it is. Big thing is, I’d bet the proper assumption is the Libertarian Party doesn’t do any better than it ever does.  Which is to say, 1%.

In the last day I’ve been going, wow… this Trump thing is really going to happen.  Well I’m mindful right now to not forget, women and minorities won’t be voting for him.  That’s a high bar.

Last thing:  In the DNC emails, I’m pretty amused at what must be a staff of cosmopolitan atheists themselves speculating how they can damage Bernie’s standing among flyover country Democrats by revealing his atheism.

7/26/16 Zingy 2016 General Election Win Chance %:

Trump – 50.1%

Clinton – 49.9%

Daily election outlook: 538 has Trump very far ahead

The usual dynamic link.  Today Nate’s model has Trump with a 57% probability of winning

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Holy fing old white people preference cascade man.

Ya know, I don’t know….  As a matter of analysis I think all the reasons I thought Trump couldn’t win are still true.

But Hillary is still very unlikable. And given an opportunity to vote against her, a lot of people will, instinctually. And the ‘give the system the middle finger’ vote is Trumps.  And it’s a very big vote.

Takeaway:  Trump defeat is a ‘landslide that destroys the GOP’ is actually a remote scenario.

Zingy 2016 General Election Win Chance %:

Trump – 51%

Clinton – 49%

Daily election outlook: Post-RNC acceptance speech

My certitude that Trump will lose comes from a proper but fairly conventional understanding of American politics past and present but fact is, predicting is hard, especially about the future, and things change.  So Trump could win.  And ya know, he’s in the game, and he’s not down that far.  Maybe he’s not down at all.

He could win.  He can win with that speech and that message (I’m not voting for him). That’s the reality, there is an electorate that will be successfully appealed to there.

This map is not static, it apparently updates by day, so what you want to note about today’s outlook is  538 regards it currently as a merely 292/244 EC race in favor of Clinton.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?

Boy, that’s precarious for the presumed victor.  If Trump gets FL and another state like OH, PA, CO…. he wins.  That’s all yer mythical cascade preference needs to accomplish.  And it has a feeling of being more likely than unlikely.

7/22/2016 – Zingy 2016 General Election Win Chance %:

Trump – 51%

Clinton – 49%

So far I’ve failed at being a ‘follower’ of Bournemouth FC

They were here and gone before I knew:

http://www.twincities.com/2016/07/20/united-fc-falls-4-0-to-bournemouth-in-international-friendly-match/

Not like I was going to drive to Blaine to see them.

I listen to Reusse in the afternoon, I have a great temperamental kinship with him.  Reusse chatted about this game yesterday.  He pronounces it ‘BoooooooRN-MOW-THhhh’.  The Minnesota ooooooo there is something that cant be corrected, not in a man his age, not in a man my age.  But its ‘muth’.  ‘born-muth.’

Daily election outlook: “vote your conscience”

What I do here at Zingy is significantly an earnest exercise in reality discernment, right….  Cut through the bullshit and mass psychosis to discern reality… not let your partisan rooting interests and emotions get in the way of discerning reality….. Choose the best, most accurate words to describe reality….

To that end you use context and history and wisdom.   If you’re predicting you use all that and Occam’s razor too.

I thought there was no way Trump would be nominee.  It wasn’t an ignorant guess.

He is R nominee though, and in a binary system in a split country with big superficial momentum swings, the CW is Trump has a meaningful chance of winning the general election despite some structural boundaries.  The CW right now is that pct chance is about 35% (say, Nate Silver).  Here’s my guess at a probability percentage (I’ll try and make this a recurring feature every few days):

2016 General Election Win Chance %:

Clinton – 100%

Trump – 0%

Last night there, in my mind Cruz probably moved the realistic probability of Trump actually winning from something meaninglessly non-zero to zero.  So it’s not to say Cruz made a Trump victory impossible…. Trump and his intersection with existing political demographics makes a Trump victory almost impossible.  But Cruz did remove some doubt when he suggested to “lesser of two evils” weighing Republicans that it was a virtue to not vote for Trump.  A lot of them now will go ahead and not.  It’s enough, not like magic thinking of a Trump general election preference cascade was going to be sufficient anyway.

So what comes of last night’s non-endorsement is not the election result.  It’s that as an articulator of reality Cruz gains stature, has the most credibility to be the head of Republican leadership in exile.  And we don’t actually wait until 2020 for Republican leadership in exile to grab the reins of the party.  Rein grabbing happens on Wed, Nov 9, 2016.

Chait gives Cruz a big smooch:  http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/gop-in-chaos-must-decide-whether-to-elect-madman.html

Yeah, Cruz is understood to be a calculating, self-serving SOB.  But his self-interest is in the Venn overlap there with the party’s smart, responsible future such that there is going to be a smart responsible future.  No one else is doing it, Cruz is earning his place.

Added:  http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/438159/i-choose-ted

 

My Terry Ryan Story

Terry Ryan got fired by the Twins after a very long run in their organization, and 18 years as General Manager.  In this departure, commentary towards him is pretty warm despite the Twins baseball failures of recent years.  They ‘all’ say he’s a hale fellow, well met.  That he’s very ethical and open.

I went to a Twins open tryout at the dome in say 1992 and tried out as a pitcher.  Ryan was farm director at the time, and operating the radar gun.

In my turn I was lighting up the gun at 68, 69 mph.  On today’s guns that would be, ya know, 75.  I also had new spikes.

Ryan said ‘you shouldn’t have bought new spikes kid’.

Get it.

But really, that’s pro analysis of dilettante’s ability, and it was honest.  No offense taken for him being crusty pro baseball guy to the amateur there.  He wasn’t a dick.

He was wrong though.  I wore those spikes 15 years, wore the spikes off them.  Probably played in more than 100 amateur games with those spikes.