Everyone chill out on the contested GOP convention thing

People talking about this like it’s the end of the world.  It’s not, depending on what’s meant.

Look, if you go in and Trump and Cruz have the highest delegate counts but are short of clinching… then someone else like Romney or Rick Perry or Marco gets the nomination….. that’s a problem.  Party revolt, automatic Hillary victory.

You go in and Trump has the highest delegate count short of clinching and Cruz is second but Cruz wins the nomination…. That’s not nearly as big a problem.   Not saying Cruz would beat Hillary though he might.  In any case it amounts to the party ‘putting its best foot forward’.  And I think this is in fact what Cruz himself is talking about when he says a ‘contested / brokered convention’ would be catastrophic…. that its catastrophic if he doesn’t end up being the choice when the brokering is done.

And he’s right as far as it goes, and I think it’s probably what’s going to happen.   Cruz will be the nominee because its ‘best foot forward’ / least damaging.



2 thoughts on “Everyone chill out on the contested GOP convention thing

  1. pm1956

    Well, I would say that is catastrophic, but it would be pretty bad for the GOP. The reason why is that the Trump supporters are, generally, the ones who already feel “betrayed” by the GOP. Josh Marshall explains this pretty well, i think ( http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-great-betrayal ). Now, I know that you like Ross Douthat, and i have read his stuff on which would be worse, a brokered convention or Trump as the nominee, and he clearly prefers the brokered convention, and to hell with those who feel betrayed (because he feels, I think, that they are idiots anyway–and i generally agree with him–they are idiots for having believed that stuff in the first place). And you and Ross may be right, that in the long term it would be better to have Cruz as a nominee than Trump, for the long term health of the GOP. Trump as nominee would certainly hurt the GOP brand in ways that would be longer lasting than a Cruz loss.

    But either way, the GOP will have a lot of ‘splaining to do.


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