I Exhale: Trump won’t be president

I watched the Thursday debate from the North Shore during a little getaway.

Marco stepped up to assertively vanquish Trump, and that was great.   But the bigger truth is Trump U is now out there conversationally, and is a disqualifier.  This is a lock, Trump U disqualifies, it closes the Overton window because a plurality of Americans wouldn’t be able to look past that.  He won’t be elected and as such probably won’t be the nominee.  But here’s the possibilities:

A Trump stalls out now, Rubio or Cruz reaches a decisive delegate count pre-convention

B Trump keeps rolling, reaches a near decisive delegate count pre-convention, Rubio is nominated on the 2nd ballot.

C Trump keeps rolling, reaches a decisive delegate count pre-convention, runs as the nominee, loses to Hillary.

I go with B.  Does Rubio ascend above all the Republican acrimony and win at that point?  Maybe.  I suspect it’s not as hard a hill as its perceived now.  But goodness this is a mess.

PS: I’m not voting for Trump, ever. I may go caucus tomorrow night.  I went and voted for Arne Carlson in the primary once so that he would defeat Allan Quist, but otherwise I (proudly) do not do this stuff.

PPS:  I’m looking at this Trump U thing and wondering how it did not work for these people to dispute it on their credit cards

PPPS:  Yeah there’s the David Duke thing also, which is equal to Trump U as a disqualifier.

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4 thoughts on “I Exhale: Trump won’t be president

  1. pm1956

    I really doubt that option A will come to pass. If option B happens, I expect that Trump will bolt and try to run as an independent. I expect that a brokered convention will be almost as bad for the GOP Party as a Trump nomination. I expect that option C is most likely, with Hillary winning.

    Short term this is, of course, all good news for the Democratic Party, but I would still be willing to bet that Hillary is a one term President (16 years of one party in power is historically highly unusual. Generally, if a 2 term president is followed by another president from the same party, that president only lasts one term).

    What really matters is how the GOP reforms itself. This Trump phenomena is not an accident, but the results of longer term trends within the party, and something must be done to change things. Newt Gingrich had it right when he told the Fox News people that they created Trump (simplification, sure, but unless the GOP wants more Trumps to appear, they need to change things.).

    Reply
  2. pm1956

    just to expand: the problem with the GOP is this anti-government, anti-establishment stance thaat they have created, used and abused. It is totally manufactured and fake, because the GOP is part of the establishment and the government, and that is what all of their candidates are aspiring to be–part of the government and the establishment. Yet they constantly denigrate it, talk about how corrupt it is, how evil it is, etc. YThey have manufactured this outrage and anger that Donald Trump is now exploiting and taking over, because he is a better demagogue than they are. This is a contest that they can’t win, because it is dishonest of them in the first place (they really all do aspire to be part of the establishment and the government). They need to build up the institutions that they aspire to lead, so that there is something for them to win.

    Reply
    1. W.E. Peterson Post author

      I don’t buy this, I think it’s a bit of projection from the left, indeed a left that would like some authoritarianism in some ways. I buy some of the other of the left’s projection’s right now, like these rube Trump lovers are dumb people…

      Reply

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