Granite state prediction

Prediction: Rubio wins the GOP NH primary.

Chait Stains:  Sanders HC math doesn’t add up.  Uh, sure.  Sanders math doesn’t add up.  But it’s fair to say Chait and his brethren knew ObamaCare / PPACA budget numbers were a pack of lies from front to back, so it’s curious the circumstances by which Sander’s proposal here is to be evaluated literally rather than as a values signal where his lie would be understood as a noble lie.  I mean, that’s the length you have to go to argue for Hillary because of her preference as the ‘electable’ candidate?  Chait’s insincerity is a bit much there.  He did pull some punches, he didn’t call Sanders a liar or crazy like he would a Republican.

Related:  Cadillac tax is going to die and with it its fake revenue stream  You got some WH policy douches trying to rework it in a way that allows it to live, I’m sure under the assumption that if it lives it can be allowed to creep up and have a tax bite…. But it won’t, it will be rescinded.

Medicare for all:  I think this notion of “buying into Medicare” as the public option is dead, and ObamaCare killed it.

I’m not snarking, this is pure analysis.  Thing is, Medicare is ostensibly paid for by FICA taxes, and that revenue pool pays for retiree medical benefits, and its ostensibly doing a little better than breakeven (now).  If you are to change it so the public at large can “buy in to medicare” for their medical insurance, then you have to actuarially price a premium for those new payers and coverees.  And it’s going to be no less difficult or cheaper than when the private companies set premiums for their PPACA exchange plans.  I dunno… I perceive a ‘Medicare public option’ premium payment that’s reflective of ‘real’ market prices being a deal breaker for those who this is supposed to appeal to.  Whole thing does not offer any advantages over the private companies in the exchanges.

97% consensus: don’t drink while pregnant or planning to be  This has got science behind it right?  So you got to believe it or be a denier…

Its crap, alright?  A woman can have a drink on the eve of pregnancy or during, and have wonderful babies…  I got a whole family tree full of gals to prove it, along with those in a multitude of other people’s family trees through the ages that proves it…

Its agenda driven crap, and I can know this with certitude without being an epidemiologist….. Just like I can know with certitude that global warming is agenda driven crap and a non-problem while not having a climatologists education.

The answer is No  And not like it’s going to happen.  But a thing here….

It’s extraordinarily regressive.  So if it gets enacted, it imparts some effect where poor / moderate income people’s effective tax rate starts creeping up there comparative to affluent / rich people…. Which would, ya know, then create the opportunity for the Vox kids to create a graph and show how taxes aren’t really very progressive in this country…which makes for an argument to raise high bracket income tax rates.

Nevermind the GP, the Ds have some chaos brewing  Myself, I don’t actually live in a Republican bubble.  My wife and a slim majority of the people I associate with are Democrats…. And they all want Sanders in the way they wanted Obama.  You got a big problem once Hillary wins the nomination, that being, a lot of these people are not going to turn out for her.  The post-mortem when Rubio wins is going to be what a dreadful decision it was to reserve the Democrat party’s POTUS slot for her.


2 thoughts on “Granite state prediction

  1. pm1956

    You are wrong about the Obamacare #’s–they do add up, and it is doing exactly as was predicted.

    Clearly it is grossly inaccurate on your part to say that Chait knew the Obamacare numbers were a lie–Chait does not feel that they were a lie, and Chait is pretty clearly convinced that they were accurate when made, and the performance has been better than predicted. So Chait is internally consistent in his criticism of Sanders, and you are wildly off base.

  2. pm1956

    One thought on the oil tax Obama proposed:

    If I was one of the GOP candidates, I do a variation on this proposal: I’d propose a $10/barrel tax on imported oil–and portray this as a way to stick it to the Saudis and the Russians while protecting the American producers. I do not think that this would be good economics, but it would create some revenue, it would protect domestic producers, and it would make it more expensive for the Saudis to drive down the global price and shut down domestic American production. See:


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