I knew Trump would not win Iowa

See last Thursday’s post.

It’s a binary proposition, right.  He either finishes first and wins or does not finish first and does not win.  So to pick one side of a Boolean / binary proposition…. there’s not innate impressive difficulty there except that it was to go against a pretty dominant conventional wisdom and as such it was almost a counterintuitive prediction (boy there was a lot of pants shitting that he was going to win…).

Well… it wasn’t really counter-intuitive.  It was rather intuitive, in fact, that he would not win.  It was just that there was quite a bit of herd mentality / mass psychosis preventing a plurality / majority of the punditry from discerning the most likely outcome.  Which is / was, that you can’t win caucuses and primaries without a base of people behind you that are in the habit of voting in caucuses and primaries.  And that, you need a real ground effort on which a shit-ton of money is spent.  Trump does not have that, so he does not win (though the amount of people who voted for him is not insubstantial).

You’re also going against the polls at that point, and we had a few years ago the Republicans being embarrassed for their fixation with ‘skewed’ polls.  But I had here some sense these Iowa polls were in fact crap… people doing a bunch of, ya know, virtue signaling on the telephone.

Anywho, the thought exercise here daily is to make insightful, correct observations free of fan worshipping or alternately paranoia, and I’m doing it… I think.

I see it as Rubio in the end, because he’s the R establishment candidate and is a quality candidate in his own right.  And I think it highly likely he prevails over Clinton or Sanders, not because Republican policy prescriptions are best….  But because he’s a better candidate.  It takes a lot for this country to elect a geriatric to the Presidency, and HRC or Sanders don’t have what it takes to be an exception.

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5 thoughts on “I knew Trump would not win Iowa

  1. pm1956

    Well, yes, there was a 50/50 chance of Trump winning/not winning. But not winning is not losing, or else Rubio lost (and the current herd mentality is that Rubio “won” Iowa by coming in 3rd.

    Further, there is a huge (“yuuge”?) distinction between primaries and causcuses. And, clearly, Trump did not prepare for the Iowa Caucus as either Cruz or Rubio did.

    But, the main lesson seems to be that the GOP establishment (including, especially, Fox News) can breathe again, and they are now pinning everything on Rubio.

    Lets see if they can derail Trump in NH and later.

    Reply
  2. pm1956

    BTW, you know what will be coming Rubio’s direction, right? Immigration, Immigration, Immigration. Every other GOP candidate will be going after him on his support for immigration reform. Can he stand this?

    And, of course, if he succeeds, then in the general election, he will get just the opposite–he will be tarred and feathered that he is anti-immigration (to separate him from Hispanics and millenials).

    As for your point about youth–Sanders (who was older) did much better among the young. I am not certain that age is what millenials are looking at, really.

    Reply
      1. pm1956

        I understand. As much as I am tempted to enjoy it and talk about chickens coming home to roost, etc., I know that this isn’t a good thing, and we are all better served when our political parties are serious about the issues of the day. Whatever else you might say about Trump, it is hard to take him seriously on the issues. And that seems to be part of his popularity. I really think that his reality tv background is one of the great parts of his current success. And that is definitely depressing.

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