Jots with dots 10/27

Minnesota Poll – http://www.startribune.com/local/yourvoices/280483962.html has Dayton by 7 and Franken by 9.  That means Dayton / Johnson is probably essentially a tie, with Johnson having some chance of walking off with the prize, what with the Minnesota Poll usually having a built in 8 pt skew to the Democrats. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/mn/minnesota_governor_emmer_vs_dayton_vs_horner-1393.html  Seriously, the governor’s race has always been volatile (think Carlson v Perpich, 1990).  I have no doubts a preference cascade could occur here in the final week that tips it to Johnson.  I’ll say it…Johnson wins.  One of Franken or Dayton is going to lose.

At this point it’s too obvious to ignore / dismiss with blithe sycophancy.  SNL mocks Pres. Obama for his competence.  http://hotair.com/archives/2014/10/27/video-snl-mocks-entire-obama-tenure-in-ebola-skit/

More IRS scandals that are ‘bullshit’ http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/26/us/law-lets-irs-seize-accounts-on-suspicion-no-crime-required.html?_r=0

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7 thoughts on “Jots with dots 10/27

  1. pm1956

    Ahhh….so now you are also unskewing the polls? I doubt that there is that kind of “skewing” going on, but sure, go ahead…..

    Reply
    1. Erik Petersen Post author

      Minnesota Poll showed Dayton up by 7 4 years ago, he won by less than 1%.

      No, not generally a poll unskewer. I understood what Nate Silver’s piece of insight meant.

      Reply
      1. pm1956

        the fact that on one poll there was a 6% difference between the results and the poll that was taken about a week before the election does not mean that the poll is “skewed”…

        to make the argument that you are suggesting requires a lengthy history of polls that consistently overstate the results in one direction (such as Rasmussen polls do with the GOP). One result is never a trend, it is an anecdote.

  2. pm1956

    Some interesting thoughts on what a GOP Senate might mean:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/391361/senate-come-ramesh-ponnuru

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/10/28/republicans-will-probably-take-the-senate-heres-why-it-will-be-a-nightmare-for-them/?hpid=z3

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/10/house_republicans_have_been_unproductive_that_won_t_change_even_if_republicans.html

    I suppose it will all come down to the extent that the GOP Senate and the GOP House don’t fracture–people like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul fighting for attention and influence and the nomination could make politics very interesting…

    Reply

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