Horserace: Debate night

At this moment Silver-538 sees it electorally as 272 / 265 > Clinton. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

That’s tight. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/09/should-you-panic-over-the-polls-yes-you-should.html

It’s not obvious to me what ostensibly blue state Trump picks off to get over the top…. http://www.vox.com/2016/9/26/13057850/donald-trump-polls-winning But it appears he’s going to win Ohio. A Republican president hasn’t won without Ohio since yada yada…. Bodes well for Trump, is the thing.

In our exercises here I have tried to embrace methodology and evidence, etc rather than gut… the evidentiary guess is that Clinton squeaks this out. The ambient vibe though, is she’s going to lose and Trump is going to win.

Making the mundane into the malevolent: Donald Trump Jr reads and chats on gun message boards

Deadspin has pulled some quotes from various threads Jr. has participated in.

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/that-idiot-on-your-hunting-message-board-might-be-donal-1786882492

Here’s what I see as a gun culture guy:

• Jr. reloads ammo. This a positive attribute, should speak flatteringly to his character for a few reasons. Reloading is time consuming, and speaks to thrift and precision / fastidiousness.

• Jr. asks questions to learn technical and maintenance details (bows and arrows..) – also flattering of his character.

• Jr. has AR questions, asks them in terms of complying with NY law – there isn’t any crank bravado or ‘Molon Labe’ invoked there.

• Jr.’s hunting pictures are tasteful / respectful.

• Jr. has utilitarian message board user names that are his initials. He probably embraced that form merely because it was easy to remember. He doesn’t cock off about who he is, in his chatter about hunting Alaska or Africa he sounds pretty matter of fact, like any other guy’s guy affluent hunter I’ve been around. He’s not involved in conversations that bandies how expensive and elite it is, all that…. Maybe cuz it’s not so much these days. Exotic hunting has been democratized a bit like everything else.

• He is recorded there expressing derision to gun control and one its proponents, Rosie O’Donnell. Like father like son, but…. Meh. If I’m to rate him 1 to 10 on a scale of gun message board obnoxiousness, I rate him a 2, maybe 3. He’s positive and well behaved generally.

Understanding Jr.’s Trumpi-ness in general you’d have sense to guess he’s a dick… and I’m quite OK with entertaining that guess… but there’s zero that reveals it with his gun message board activity. Such that Jr’s internet wandering made public reveal his private life, he ain’t Anthony Weiner say.

I have logins at several of those message boards that Deadspin lists, though those aren’t among my handful of mainstays… I grew up with some hand-me-down of aptitude right, but my father didn’t give me the insight I have to ply the niche trade I ply. I learned that stuff substantially from reading gun message boards. The internet is an amazing thing, people of like minds gather and talk. On gunboards, guys talk about …. guns, with what I’d say is consistent fraternal politeness. Now, if you are guided by trope you may be moved to deduce…. the gunnies are on the right and the alt-right is on the right, right? And the alt-right probably likes guns…. Ipso facto, the gun boards are a hot bed of white guy anger, hating on blacks, mexicans, jews and muslims? There are a few assumptions Deadspin is trying to play to with this article, and that’s probably one of them. It’s not true. I’ve never, ever seen such a thread on the gun enthusiast boards, Id assert authoritatively there isn’t any 4chan/alt-right crossover to perceive in these places.

That’s how you do that, Tulsa DA

http://www.fox23.com/news/tulsa-county-da-to-hold-news-confernce-at-330-about-shooting-death-of-terence-crutcher/448985146

Let the jury figure it out. Let the jury figure out if a vaguely furtive movement constitutes a valid perception of danger.

When we going to get a decision on Philando? It’s like Cho doesn’t want to charge…

Tulsa – charged in 6 days

Ramsey County – pending since July 6th

An unequal distribution of guns in this country

I’ve been seeing this article and maybe one extremely similar in a couple places the last couple days

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/20/gun-ownership-america-firearms-super-owners

The superowner 3 percent has got quite a bit of America’s guns. Average superowner has 17.

I have more than 17…. .22s… and a few other things. I like .22s though. I still don’t have an AR.

Article treats its interviewees pretty fairly but there is a subtext implication from the liberal reporter ya figure…. that this is weird, that these people are weird, that these collectors and their collections are a malevolent thing contributing to whatever the gun problem is in this country.

This is to get it ass backwards, these people and their collections are not malevolent, they are not the problem (crooks getting a straw buyer to buy one at Gander Mountain etc are the problem…). Actually, assume reasonably that the sensible center left public policy desire is for a public that’s not overtly / thoroughly weaponized, with this public policy desire also understanding there is not any great movement to be had in the direction of prohibition / confiscation. Well then, that end is well served by as many of the guns as possible being in tidy little caches with stewards who are passionate about them. The collectors provide this function.

FYI It is pretty easy to end up with a few dozen guns without having been on a nutty buying spree. If you hunt, you need shotguns for birds… different kinds of shotguns even. Same, different kinds of rifles for critters, depending on size and shooting distance. Then you need some for your kids. Then yeah, if you are the gun guy in the family, you inherit a bunch. Looking at my list, there’s more than 10 I was given.

Other thing is, with most of the accumulators / collectors, it’s rare they sell anything. They’d rather have a redundant / superfluous gun than see the cash value of gun get directed into household budget say. And selling guns is kind of laborious and furtive in this age if you don’t do it often enough to get it done efficiently. So these caches never get any smaller, you never get down to one closet of guns… Which is to say, within this astronomical number of guns in this country, there’s a substantial amount of them that are not liquid in any practical way. Not a bad thing.

Burn Baby Burn: Wells Fargo

I’ll tell ya here, I’m sometimes astonished this didn’t end up a Wells Fargo grudge blog. I hate that company, buncha thieves. But I have formidable self-control. I see I may have only mentioned them twice in the blog.

I approve of this:

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/sen-elizabeth-warren-tears-wells-fargo-ceo-john-stumpf

Go get em, Elizabeth. I think the taking money from the till vs. taking ill-gotten stock gains is a fair point by Warren.

I was obliquely affected by the fake superfluous checking / savings account thing, not that I’m going to get any cash. Wells arrives at this point here because of a dishonest, multi-year effort by to generate fee income against the balances of account holders. It was thievery, fuck em.

Good friend of mine has done well as a sales manager for wells, he says Stumpf should resign.

What happened in St Cloud is….

The slasher stabbed 10 people, and the 11th person he encountered was a ‘gun culture’ guy.

It’s been my sense that ‘gun culture’ in this country isn’t actually any meaningful part of this country’s ‘gun problem’. More so I think it’s observable that ‘gun culture’ and the dudes therein are a positive security / safety presence, particularly because of their size / number. And now, St. Cloud… such that people would like to poo-poo the potentiality of a cc permittee intervening to stop a crime…. That’s not very persuasive.

Update: I missed the obvious punch line…. good guy with a gun. It happened here.