Birthday jots w/ dots

I’m 47 today.  Yay.

I said that:  Its somewhat a surprise to me too that Rubio was the one who was that cunning, who had that piece of killer insight.   I mean yeah, I know he’s smart, but this…. It’s awesome.  Other thing is, I’m surprised the administration overlooked this when they signed on to Cromnibus.  Other other thing is, I am somewhat surprised the administration hasn’t found it possible to subvert the law in some way but, whadayaknow, federal funding authorizations are somewhat ironclad in their strictness at times.  Rubio’s law was perfectly reasonable by the way.  If you’re to assert that the corridor pool was going to be revenue neutral, as the administration did in selling PPACA, ya ought to have no objection in adhering to that.

I don’t agree with this intuitive notion:  1) it assumes Trump has a thought-out political philosophy.  He does not.  What he says that is vaguely ‘fascistic’ is knee jerk responses to interview questions.  Qualitatively, there’s not enough meat there to call it ‘fascistic’.  2)  such that fascism is a thing it’s supposed to be where everything is in furtherance of the state.  Trump as a ‘nationalist’, again qualitatively, is a bit far from there.  I’m not worried.

Ya know, Republicans like to play the ‘Chicago’ card to demonstrate the failure of the blue city / blue state governance model.    Kinda trite, and I’m not persuaded Chicago doesn’t thrive in many ways, so I don’t think I have ever made a argument using ‘Chicago’.  But  Emmanuel buried that tape because he had a contested election and he needed the police vote and the ‘white’ vote.  Very crass, very cynical, extraordinarily anti-democratic.  Don’t tell me it’s the R’s who are racist…

This is pretty good:

Obamacare was repealed

UHG, I think I recall correctly, sat out Obamacare’s first year, then in year two made an aggressive play to get in and feed at the exchanges troughs, and is now out with a forecast loss of $500M in the next year.

What happened?  Internally they couldn’t have been $500M mistaken about the market or the quality of the insuree pool right?

I doubt they were, it’s just that they thought the risk corridor program was going to backstop the loss until some equilibrium was reached.   It won’t….

….because the risk corridor pool doesn’t have a magical funding source, the Republicans having imposed iron clad budget neutrality on it in the Cromnibus of 2014.

With the PPACA fanboys and sycophants there’s this instinct to assert Obamacare is merely having ‘growing pains’.  And it would be another thing if SOME of these insurers were actually contributing excess premiums to the risk corridor pool to be paid out to subsidize the losses of others like was envisioned.   But they’re not.  Shorthand, its say $300M in receipts vs $3B in reimbursement requests.  Which means just about everyone doing PPACA is unprofitable.

Within the industry, it may have persisted for a while into this year either that the corridor pools were funded or that the administration was going to be able to pay the reimbursement claims in some off-book manner of dubious legality…. like they do a few other things with PPACA.  But with the co-ops being left to fail, it shows neither are true or possible.

UHG takes that as a signal.  They have to bail, or raise their premiums such that they’re not really competitive and with no guarantee the price hikes bring premiums / payouts to actuarial harmony.

More companies will follow, and the prudent thing is to not do PPACA business.  What you’ll soon have are PPACA exchanges with no companies offering policies.

Maybe ‘Obamacare’ lives on in name for sake of the 10 million in new subsidized coverees that have been added.  But for even that to happen, it’s got to be revisited and funded by Congress in the next 1 or 2 years.  At that point, the basic mechanism gets changed to something else and the Cadlliac tax, the mandates, the device tax and all that other BS go away.

Ya know, it basically gets changed into ‘high risk pools’… which was the real Republican idea for health care reform.

It’s going to be an astonishing turn-about.

Jots w/ dots 11/23

BLM Jamar:  I was reading the papers.  It appears this man was a type whose ill temper made him unsuitable for membership in the local street gangs.   That bad.  So anyway, a few things from each side can be true here.  Or at least discerned.

Yeah, he was unarmed.

He scuffled with the cops I’m sure.

He probably was not cuffed when he got shot.

This assertion Jamal ‘reached for the officer’s weapon’…  There’s probably a 90% probability that’s not meaningfully / actually / literally true.  All the assailant’s movements are considered ‘reaching for the officer’s weapon’ during an encounter like this.  It’s completely boilerplate, the officers always say that in the report because it’s unfalsifiable and as a practical legal matter it has an effect of exonerating.  That’s the case law.  If the officer believes it, the shooting is justified.

So, Jamar got shot.

In these pages I’ve expressed a depth of sympathy for BLM and its aims, but this thing here is enough of a mess I have a hard time making it support any particular notion.

I agree with this counterintuitive notion:  let’s say, it would be nice if the public were generally educated enough to understand that we don’t have a government with powers to yank the sanction of a church to operate…. Cuz we don’t have a government that gives churchs’ sanction to operate.  Recall, the First Amendment.  Now, that Trump is one of the imbeciles in this country that doesn’t know this…. That’s not surprising.  Rubio?  I dunno, I’d have to examine the source quote for context, and I don’t see it anywhere.  He didn’t go to Harvard eh…. And such that he didn’t and such that we’ve had 4 Presidents in a row who did go to Harvard or Yale… makes ya think maybe Cruz will be the guy, cuz he did and he’s displayed this formidability….  Not that I’m in love with him, but I don’t think his obnoxiousness problem is too serious compared to Hillary’s old corrupt harpy problem.

Analysis: True.

Maybe it’s not ‘bad’ news I mean, maybe she’s just lying / pandering to get the votes from a certain amount of sheeple she needs to get over the top eh.  That would be OK right.

They don’t have a gun control tab.  Cuz, we won…. Anyway, the Ds and Rs in my family don’t really argue at Thanksgiving.

My children ask me questions about the world…. And I very often give them 300 level undergraduate answers, these taking an hour or so.  I’m verbose eh.  We were talking the other day.  The HS freshman is in advanced anthropology, they call it “AP Geography”, and he gives me a pretty detailed recitation of the Obama administration’s basic argument for not getting very deep into Syria.  It’s that notion for futility, quagmire, and ‘not doing stupid shit.’ Tonally, I think I detect he approves the wisdom of this.  I guess maybe there’s a bias in that classroom, and that’s curious…  it is a public school… but it’s also just curious to me they have this quality of discussion going on there.  Wow.

Religion is the smile on a dog

Been completely earwormed with Edie Brickell since amusing myself with that philosophy is the talk on a cereal box reference.  Downloaded it from Itunes.  Been asking my dog if it’s true that religion is the smile on a dog.

Had to take my boys to religion last Wed as usual.  The eldest, the 14 year old, is supremely bored by it.  I had to acknowledge…. I didn’t like it either in the 80’s, and there’s got to be something deficient about Catholic instruction, as what is timeless is the Lutheran kids seem to enjoy their church youth groups.  And with them / that sect, there is I think more an evangelical focus on joy / love that might make this understandable or stand to a certain reason.

But… tough luck for you kid, I said, you didn’t luck out that way.  You’re German-Irish Catholic, so you go there to focus on your flaws and this has got to be varying degrees of miserable / insufferable / unpleasant.

Jots w/ dots 11/20

That’s because the no refugees now position is reasonable and prudent

With the college kids and their hysterical advocacies and protests….  Thing that’s kinda notionally curious to me is the understanding that these kids will matriculate into the world of operating an adult household with that necessitating earning an adult living.  Which probably requires working in a cube farm.  In cube farms, you don’t do melodrama.  So there’s a contrast / disconnect / something dissonant to me here…. That makes me shake my head at those crazy kids.

I’m going to this  with the wife.  Need to atone for not ‘getting it’ as a young person.  The music is good.

I had my eye on this, because I use it and I see a lot of people use it  yeah well, this is normal and the smart thing is to buy at post IPO prices.  By the way, the little square smartphone fob is not ‘all’ that Square adds to the cc industry.  Fair to say Square underwrote / guaranteed / captured the commerce of a small business segment the traditional processors wouldn’t transact with.

BLM Jamar

This seems to have moved to a place where the judgment of whether the shooting was justifiable or not is to be determined by whether the fella was handcuffed.

I doubt that’s right, or ought to be.  Much like Michael Brown / Ferguson that way, where the focus came to rest on whether in the end Brown had his hands up to surrender…  This is the wrong thing, not really relevant, as the important thing is that review boards and grand juries are accustomed to excusing police shootings where the shot are unarmed if some notion of ‘justifiab-ility’ can be expressed against a very minimal threshold for personal danger.

The cops may very well be lying here…. cuz they commonly do on police reports.   But if it comes to pass Clark was not handcuffed, BLM might be faulted for not succeeding with their movement because they can’t make the right point and that they implicitly ratify the wrong ones.  People aren’t receptive to that in a protest movement eh.

Misc on this:

It’s not obvious to me that getting the BCA to do the investigation makes it qualitatively better and truthful and gets a Hennepin County prosecutor to file a charge at any point if warranted.

If you got an investigator who interviews 10 civilian bystanders, and they all say the guy was handcuffed, and he also interviews 3 cops and 2 EMTs who says he wasn’t…. What then?  Give it to the grand jury and let them figure it out?  You can see where a cosmic justice has no chance of getting served here, and this kind of thing is leading me to a sort of nihilism concerning ‘justice’, cosmic or otherwise.   Don’t put too much faith in it happening.  Be pleasantly surprised if it does.

Harteau and Hodges might look superficially strong and assertive when they bring in third party bureaus, but I gotta think it’s really a reflection of weakness that they can have no faith city institutions will come to the right actions on their own.


I don’t have observations that are to be woven into a conclusion.  I feel more resigned than anything.  Note this stuff:

From Paris, there is this glyph being passed around that is a mashup of a peace sign and the Eiffel Tower.  Fine, as far as it goes, but whatever this war is…. It’s not something that gets salved with sentiments of peace, good will, diversity, and understanding.   Thus, the sentimental exercise there is kind of infantile or naïve.  I disapprove.

Bri has a Paris column over at Joey and the Bri.  I don’t actually disagree with his expression for the futility in waging war over there. That’s a thing, that futility.  If it’s futile, don’t do it.  I buy that, it can be a proper rationale, and it’s often the President’s rationale.  I can not find fault for whatever wisdom this might be in the way of prudence / cautiousness, this hesitation on his part.

Then again, I don’t know that this isn’t an answer.  Thing is, we look back at our wars with an eye to figuring out if we were right or not.  We’d not ever have a regret about grinding Raqqa into dust, it would be thought of as having been necessary.  And yeah, it doesn’t solve things at the macro level….but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a useful thing to do.

If we have been air striking ISIL for a year, I think this is a good question….  how is it there were 20 decent targets in Raqqa left to hit?  Well, it’s ostensibly the fear of civilian causalities right.  That is a proper fear, but it’s not like the peace-left would ever hold President DroneStrike’s feet to the fire on something like that.  No worries, bomb Raqqa like Sarajevo.

This:  A conclusion that can’t be superseded for wisdom and truth is, we don’t have to admit refugees.  We can, and it’s very magnanimous when we do… but we’re not obligated to, and it’s not a poor reflection on us for not doing so now in violation of prudence.  We shouldn’t now.  So to see smarmy lefty snark merchants and ironists try to carve out some contrarian, counterintuitive space so that they can cry racist…. Go right ahead, put your money where your mouth is and keep doing that until the election.