Jots w/ dots 4/21/17

There is a liberal analog for Bill-O.  Probably several, actually, but one whose public details match up pretty darn well is David Letterman.  He never got fired…

But, its true conservative celebrity-dom is full of clowns

His hypocrisy notwithstanding, Bernie really does espouse the utilitarianism \ Pol Pot brand of socialism:

The week in Serena  I ever mention I love Serena?  This skinny white computer geek that knocked her up … ya know, guy is a stud, a heretofore unrevealed stud.  Way more studly than Justin Verlander.

Is the bucolic St. Croix valley a statistical hot spot for teen suicide? Or is this normal now.

My kids knew Colin here, were in activities and school with him.

Getting to be about a half dozen of these that I can think of in the valley in the last ten years.  Second one my kids knew.

I think I’m right in asserting this didn’t happen in the 80’s nearly so much. Or say, at all.

420 Jots w/ dots….

Analytics is not a substitute for intelligence… or something…. Because I’m sure there’s a moneyball lesson in here somewhere.  Who made the analytics revolution?  Billy Beane and Nate Silver amirite.  I’m not an apostle, but I think I’m right to remember both Beane and Silver caution that the modern analytics discipline provides ‘another’ piece of insight rather than a ‘superseding’ piece of insight.  The Clinton smart kids didn’t understand that.   Their faith was in an analytics model at the end of a campaign, they didn’t poll in October 2016.  And ostensibly it was because of some instinct for thrift that would seem strangely new to big time campaigns, much less Democrat campaigns…

Bill-O:  I never watched it, never saw one episode.  In the gun business, there was a necessity for me to ping a 75 year old collector on occasion…. Couldn’t call him during The Factor.

This would seem to be the reality, such that one chooses to see it:

There is no Democrat analog here…  I can’t see Obama having had the opportunity to get a picture snapped with say Tom Morello and Michael Moore.  The Democrats don’t actually have a Palin themselves.

Scouted: The Donald

“Trump’s absence is made all the more conspicuous by the fact that he was reportedly very good at baseball in his youth. His former baseball coach told Rolling Stone that as a senior "we had scouts from the [Philadelphia] Phillies to watch him, but he wanted to go to college and make real money." A former classmate alleged Trump could throw 80 mph, and when playing catcher, Trump was unflinching in the face of speeding foul balls.”

I take it as fact Trump was a fair enough varsity player, ya know, he lettered, but…. bullshit on the rest. The population of 18 year old baseball players in 1965 was no doubt not nearly as robotically muscular as today. But like now, 80 mph was nothing then. A 6’ 2”, say 190 lb 18 year old seen throwing “80 mph” would have been completely unremarkable. That kind of speed didn’t get you ‘scouted’. If a scout was present at your game and you were observed throwing 80 mph, they wouldn’t have taken an index card out of their pocket and written your name on it.

Trump ought to be more than capable of throwing out a first pitch. Tangentially related…. Been hearing all my life Ronald Reagan was left handed. Watched a clip of him throwing out the first pitch at Wrigley in 1984. He threw it right-handed, then signed a bunch of autographs right-handed. Explanation is, I guess, he was very ambidextrous.

No worries, Obamacare will collapse on its own….

That’s the Trump / GOP line right. It’s not true.

Now, Obamacare did death spiral, already, to the point it’s not attracting a meaningful population of healthy, affluent premium payers…

But the program can go on … The insurance companies have the ability to raise rates (with state approvals, which they will get) and the subsidized insuree is protected from raised rates because being in the program means you never pay more than an amount pegged to your income, and this stuff is all on auto pilot.

Which is to say, it’s got permanent financing as far as it goes (even if it is additive to the deficit, which it probably is), it won’t ‘collapse’. I wrote this before noticing there’s a Yglesias article out there this morning that state Trump is an idiot for assuring an Obamacare collapse. I’ll go see if the reason MattY says is the same one I do.

Jots w/ dots 3/27/17

Mayo: We can’t discount our services and do what we do, so no Medicaid Goes to thing I said other day, the expectation has to be that physicians and medical apparatus gets paid for services they render to the poor. This is what I meant. It’s unreasonable… unreasonable as a matter of logic and ethics and market dynamics and everything else …. to ask people… and believe it, corporations are people my friend…. to take 55% of the prevailing rate when they can get the prevailing rate. So whaddya going to do, make them take the work at your price? No, you got to pay them. And it does cost money. Taxes, whatever. Realityville.

Cops who kick The most needless barbarism of this incident here is when one of the onlooker police dudes kicked Baker in the chest 3 or 4 times while he was being sicked by this German shepherd. Ya know, because he felt the suspect appeared to be ‘reaching for his waistband’. A thumper in Minneapolis actually got charged for this sort of thing last week. Suspect was complying with an order to submit, face down on the pavement, and a cop walked up and kicked him in the face. This is a thing with these guys, a lot of whom are decent sized men. They like to kick suspects in the face or chest with their big bots on, and they like it so much it doesn’t matter if a suspect is a real suspect or a dangerous suspect. Ramsey County hasn’t charged this cop here like Hennepin did the other, but figure they could, and should.

Strict dad doesn’t like TrumpCare

In Republicanism we take pride in the rightfulness of our logic and wisdom that comes from resistance to emotional manipulation, and then that we insist on rewards and remuneration being earned and not given away to encourage sloth….figuratively, the stern / strict dad model eh.

As it relates to politics then, if you believe this I think you ought to be able to explain and justify the Republican position on healthcare to a child with context to TrumpCare and a tough cookies world.

My 12 year old talks politics at his urban liberal enclave charter school, and he likes to be the contrarian… which means arguing for a kind of Republicanism that I guess he’s heard me articulate. Some of that is boot-strapism no doubt. He was preparing for such conversations, and asked me what the GOP position on healthcare is.

I tried my best…. what I said I think the GOP wants (…assuming good faith) is a de-regulated market that has the potential to offer cheap policies that offer meaningful coverage.. and if you don’t buy It then, you’ve only got yourself to blame…

But you can’t recite this and believe it yourself as a dad who knows business and insurance and costs and life. This strict dad wisdom fails on the wisdom part because its willfully obtuse to reality. To math, basically. Reality is that healthcare premiums are big because healthcare is expensive as a matter of quality, and claims can get pretty big. Reality is that as a matter of scale, a handful of the income deciles are just not going to be able to afford it when its normative that 80/20 family policies cause $15k a year. So it’s not their fault when they don’t buy the insurance. They don’t have the money. And it’s not like these people don’t receive ‘care’, they do. Which is good. But their cost is shifted, and it creates chaos.

Let’s be real here…. Trumpcare is not going to enable cheap coverage that anyone buys. So Trumpcare buys more chaos.

Ya know, real strict dad wisdom is probably one that’s sees reality and tries to manage chaos. The poor-poorish have to get care, even if they can’t pay for it. Doctors and the industry apparatus have to get paid. So it has to be financed with a broad revenue base. IE, a tax regime that generates revenue for this purpose. And it should be stable, but the amount it generates does not dictate what is spent. Need dictates what is spent.

I want employer coverage maintained. I think the employer coverage market that serves the bourgeois funds a lot / all of the innovation. I want congress to make a permanent revenue allotment for programs for the uninsured / hard to insure, this pilot fishing along the trends created by employer coverage.

We could call this “ObamaCare”

Mia Culpa? Nice to meet you Mia.